Once there was…
a powerful Pacific climate pattern called El Niño—a phenomenon tied to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central-east equatorial Pacific—that could tilt weather systems around the world.
Every day,
the planet’s weather followed familiar seasonal rhythms, even as long-term human-caused climate change steadily pushed global temperatures higher in the background.
Until one day,
scientists warned that El Niño is set to return in 2026, a shift that could throw weather patterns worldwide out of whack. An advisory from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said El Niño is likely to form during the summer months and persist through the end of 2026 and potentially longer, with a 1-in-3 chance of becoming “strong” in the winter months.
Because of that,
this update became a notable revision upwards from previous forecasts, which had suggested only a modest El Niño might develop—raising the stakes for erratic global weather shifts and unusual heat.
Because of that,
the world is being reminded what recent El Niño chapters looked like: the last two events—2014–16 and 2023–24—helped deliver record heat around the world, adding fuel to further global temperature increase. And 2024 went down as the hottest year on record, driven by the combined force of human-caused climate change and a strong El Niño weather pattern.
Ever since then,
the prospect of El Niño’s return has increased the chances of another record warm year—with climate scientist Zeke Hausfather pointing to 2027 as a likely candidate—prompting renewed attention to how closely the oceans, atmosphere, and a warming baseline climate can align to reshape conditions across the globe.
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