El Niño Set to Return in 2026, Bringing Erratic Global Weather Shifts and Unusual Heat

Once there was…
a climate phenomenon called El Niño, tied to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central-east equatorial Pacific, quietly shaping weather patterns across the globe.

Every day,
the east-to-west trade winds helped keep the Pacific’s warm water and warmer air pushed westward, supporting relatively familiar seasonal patterns in many regions.

Until one day,
scientists warned that El Niño is set to return in 2026, potentially throwing global weather out of balance again.

Because of that,
an advisory issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated El Niño is likely to form during the summer months, persist through the end of 2026 and potentially longer, and now carries a 1-in-3 chance of becoming “strong” during the winter months—a notable upward revision from earlier forecasts that suggested only a modest event might develop.

Because of that,
as El Niño conditions take hold, the trade winds die down, allowing warmer-than-normal air to linger over the eastern and central tropical Pacific. That warming can trigger opposing weather patterns worldwide, such as severe droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia and heavy flooding in parts of the US and East Africa.

Ever since then,
the world has been watching El Niño more nervously—especially after the last two events (2014–16 and 2023–24) helped drive record global heat. In fact, 2024 became the hottest year on record, fueled by the combined force of long-term human-caused climate change and a strong El Niño. With El Niño expected to return, the odds of yet another record warm year rise—likely 2027, according to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather.

Source Links

https://earth.org/this-week-in-climate-news-march-2026-week-3/